Tuesday, February 9, 2016

So, what can we expect in today's New Hampshire primary?

I'm going to be very interested in the final results of today's NH primary. Firstly, because it has been my position for a while that these poll numbers for Donald Trump simply don't reflect actual votes in the end. Folks, like myself, made a big deal of Trump finishing second in Iowa, but his final percentage -- 22%, I think more accurately reflects his actual support at the moment in the process. It's my belief that, much like Ron Paul before him, fans are more than willing to answer a phone call and enjoy tweaking the process/establishment but when it comes to actually voting for a leader of the country reality sets in for them.

I won't be surprised if Trump finishes second again. It's a long shot, but not out of the realm of possibility.

Polls for Rubio are mixed. Some show him in second place, some as low as fourth. I, personally, would like to see him win NH, and that is not out of the realm of possibility either. There are suggestions out there that Chris Christie's (currently languishing at 5% in the polls) bullying of Rubio in the debate may have helped Marco. His campaign reports a surge in fundraising after the debate, and to his credit, Rubio has not backed down from his stance and has, at least in my mind, done a decent job of explaining why he kept repeating that talking point.

I doubt Cruz will finish higher than third. His poll numbers seem rather unchanged in all this. The Govs are a different matter. As I mentioned, for all his bluster about Rubio, Christie is still at the bottom of the field, actually behind Carly Fiorina, who I think may finish better than expected. She's third in events attended among the candidates and ABC's decision to keep her off the stage may work in her favor, in the same way Rubio's attack by Christie seems to be working for him. I won't be surprised if she finishes ahead of Jeb, Christie, and Carson.

After all the money and effort spent, it seems Jeb is still not going anywhere and a poor finish here is going to have some real navel searching for his campaign. Same for Ben Carson. At some point he has to realize he's not going to finish out of the cellar in this campaign and the endless stories of people jumping ship should start scaring even voters away from wasting votes on him.

Interestingly, I read stories earlier in the campaign that Carson wasn't actually trying to win the race, but instead, positioning himself for a consultant/paid speaker sort-of role down the road. That would be a terrible disappointment to find out after all the nice accolades from supporters that he was just as craven and materialistic as Trump.

But anyway, we should get a better, but by no means definitive, look at the electorate today. And I expect some big changes when it all is done.

And on the lighter side, here's Chloe Grace Moretz in a bikini:

chloe grace moretz bikini

Finally 18, I think she's having fun realizing there's some interest in seeing her in more grown up imagery if her various magazine layouts and twitter pics are any indication.


Anonymous said...

That girl is all legs!

postaldog said...

Yeah, she is disproportionately leggy. If you saw the movie The Equalizer, playing a Russian prostitute, she was wearing these really short skirts and shorts with sky-high platforms -- it looked like her legs were four feet long.